Settle yourself down - this will be a bumpy ride/blog. Let's examine the criteria and statistics recently attributed to "troubled families" and where they come from. Estimations of estimations or just figures plucked from the air? I hope you have the patience to wait and ponder occassionally.
So we’re told there are 120,000 "troubled families" in the UK and we assess them as such by their ability to meet a minimum five of seven criteria. This will be simple to understand then right?
But haven't we heard these figures and criteria before?
As politicians scrambled to explain why rioting and looting was rife back in August 2011, didn't some blame 120,000 "problem families?" But wait...that wasn't the first time was it? It’s a recurring number but where does it stem from?
When the coalition published their Child Poverty Strategy in April, they referred to an "estimated 120,000 families in England with multiple problems”.
But wait.... let's not go deep into the 120,000 without exploring the five in seven criteria....
A 2007 Cabinet Office report stated: “Having multiple problems is defined as having five or more problems from a basket of seven indicators including being in a workless household, overcrowding, maternal mental health problems, long-standing limiting illness, low income and ability to afford basic items of food and clothing.”
Now, wait again....doesn't that ring a bell? Meeting five out of the seven criteria anyone? Hmmm....
* No-one in the family is in work.
* The family is living in poor or overcrowded housing.
* No person has any qualifications.
* Mother has mental health problems.
* At least one parent has a long-standing illness or disability.
* The family has a low income.
* The family is unable to afford a number of food or clothing items.
No that’s not the same thing put differently (honest) but the markedly different 2011 version provided by David Cameron in his announcement on how to tackle "troubled families." Convinced?
A disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act by the Department of Education reveals that the 120,00 figure is an approximation of the 140,000 in the UK. The 120,000 is an estimated figure for England rounded up from an estimated 117,00 families. So, it's an estimation based on an estimated number - "good job" as my 5 year old likes to say when pleased with himself for tidying away his Power Rangers. Trouble is he has usually missed the rest of his toys scattered around his room. So what has been missed in providing these statistics?
On one regional radio show I heard the Head of Children Services for that area calculate they had 2% of the 120,000 families and claimed that equated to one, to one and a half, thousand families. Shouldn't that be 2,400 if correct? A career at the Department for Plucked from the Air statistics awaits you ma'am.
Now, wait again...can these figures be right?
The population in England mid 2007 was estimated at 51.1 million. In 2011 it was estimated at 52.2 million. That's an estimated 2.15% increase.
Back to the "facts"...
Apply this increase to the original 120,000 families and there has been a relative decrease in the number of “troubled families” in the UK in the last four years. Had it risen in line with the percentage increase in population, as you’d expect, there would now be an estimated 122,580 "troubled families" no doubt rounded up to an estimated 125,000 "troubled families."
Result! 5,000 fewer "troubled families" than we could have had.
Wow, we're good at sorting out issues in the UK - we just estimate our estimations and it all makes sense, right? Glad I was able to clear all that up for you.
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